Las Vegas Retail Market Analysis: October 2025

2.0 Analysis of Quarterly Sales Momentum (August – October 2025)

This section analyzes the “what and when” of market activity, providing a clear velocity trendline based on a complete analysis of all “Sold” properties from August 1 to October 31, 2025.¹

2.1 Monthly Sales Volume & Transaction Velocity

Transactional data for the third quarter shows robust sales momentum, characterized by accelerating dollar volume. After 28 sales in August totaling approximately $47.1 million, the market surged in September. While the number of transactions dipped to 21, the total dollar volume increased to $52.8 million, driven by several high-value institutional and portfolio sales. This momentum continued into October, which posted the strongest performance of the quarter with 27 transactions closing for a total of $59.4 million.¹

This upward trend in dollar volume, even as the broader economy shows signs of cooling ⁶, points to specific motivating factors. A significant number of transactions during this period were explicitly identified as part of a 1031 Exchange.¹ This suggests that a portion of the market’s velocity is being driven by tax-motivated capital seeking a deadline-driven placement, rather than by pure market fundamentals. This capital is often less price-sensitive, contributing to premium pricing for in-demand assets. Furthermore, the activity may reflect investors rushing to lock in financing before an anticipated future interest rate hike or further economic deterioration.

Table 1: 3-Month Sales Momentum Summary (August–October 2025)

Source: Analysis of ¹ data. Excludes sales with undisclosed prices.

2.2 Analysis of the Forward-Looking Pipeline (Under Contract / Escrow)

An analysis of assets listed as “Under Contract” or “Escrow” in the data file provides a strong near-term forecast and confirms the quarter’s primary investment theses.¹ The current pipeline contains 21 properties, representing a potential sales volume of over $82 million.

This pipeline data perfectly illustrates the bifurcated market. At one end, institutional-grade, stabilized Class B assets are moving, headlined by:

• Sahara Towne Square (2550 S Maryland Pky): A 93,420 SF, 91.77% leased, Class B community center with an asking price of $25.13 million.

• Regal Plaza (8826 S Eastern Ave): An 83,441 SF, 100% leased, Class B community center with an asking price of $24.5 million.

Simultaneously, the pipeline is saturated with small-format, NNN-leased assets trading at low-cap-rates, including:

• A 7-Eleven (425 E Windmill Ln) at a 5.0% cap rate.

• A 7-Eleven (E Craig Rd & N Lamb blvd) at a 4.75% cap rate.

• A Carls Jr. (8660 W Warm Springs Rd) at an undisclosed cap rate.

• Boulder Crossing (5576 Boulder Hwy) at a 5.0% cap rate.

The fact that capital is flowing confidently to both large, institutional Class B centers and small-format, premium-priced NNN assets confirms that investors are actively pursuing two distinct strategies: stabilized yield at scale, and secure, management-free coupon-clipping.

3.0 Pricing & Valuation Trend Analysis

This section addresses “how much” and provides insight into asset valuation, navigating the statistical noise created by outlier sales.

3.1 Price Per Square Foot (PSF) Analysis

A critical finding from the Q3 2025 sales data is the significant and misleading impact of high-value, small-footprint assets on the average price-per-square-foot. A direct analysis of the sales data reveals numerous QSR, bank, and convenience store sales that traded at exceptionally high PSF values.¹

Examples of these outliers include:

• 4151 Boulder Hwy (7-Eleven): Sold for $1,934.24/SF

• 601 Whitney Ranch Dr (Take 5 Oil Change): Sold for $1,885.47/SF

• 3255 Simmons St (Guthrie’s): Sold for $1,792.41/SF

• 2021 W Charleston Blvd (DiBella): Sold for $1,559.60/SF

• 5860 S Rainbow Blvd (Starbucks): Sold for $1,512.26/SF

These assets trade more like corporate bonds than traditional real estate. Their pricing is not based on the replacement cost of the physical structure, but rather on the cap rate applied to the long-term, guaranteed income stream from a credit tenant.

To provide a true picture of market pricing, it is essential to present both the average and median PSF. The average reflects the impact of these high-value NNN trades, while the median more accurately represents the valuation of the “typical” retail asset transacting in the market.

Table 2: Average vs. Median Price/SF (August–October 2025)

Source: Analysis of ¹ data. Excludes sales with undisclosed prices.

As shown in the table, the average PSF fluctuated significantly based on the composition of sales each month (i.e., how many high-value QSRs closed). The median PSF, however, remained in a much more stable range, aligning far more closely with the Lee & Associates-reported market-wide average of $326.00/SF.³ The spike in the median to $545.13 in October was an anomaly driven by a small sample size of deals with reported PSF that month, which happened to include several mid-range assets.

3.2 Capitalization Rate (Cap Rate) Deep Dive

The analysis of Actual Cap Rate for sold properties in Q3 2025 reveals the bifurcated market in its clearest form. Cap rates for transacted assets fell into two distinct camps ¹:

1. Premium / NNN Assets: This segment, prioritized by 1031 Exchange and risk-averse private investors, traded at aggressive lows.

   • 5860 S Rainbow Blvd (Starbucks): 4.75%

   • 316 W Lake Mead Pky (Olive Garden): 4.93%

   • 2445 E Centennial Pky (Bank of America): 5.10%

   • 1930 W Craig Rd (California Fish Grill): 5.25%

2. Value-Add / Yield Assets: This segment, sought by opportunistic and private capital, traded at significantly higher, yield-driven rates.

   • 2801 W Washington Ave: 8.90%

   • 4640 E Flamingo Rd (Flamingo Plaza): 7.44%

   • 7000-7034 W Charleston Blvd (Fiesta Square): 7.32%

   • 4777 E Charleston Blvd (the HAMLET): 6.90%

This split explains a curious trend in the broader market data. The Lee & Associates report for Q3 2025 notes a market-wide cap rate of 6.30%, which represents a 10-basis-point compression from 6.40% in Q3 2024.³ Our transactional data explains why: the sheer volume of low-cap-rate NNN and QSR deals (like those listed above) is statistically powerful enough to pull the entire market-wide average down. This compression is not indicative of a universal rise in property values; rather, it reflects a shift in the composition of assets trading, with high demand for secure, low-yield properties.

3.3 Discount-to-Ask Analysis

A comparison of Asking Price to final Sale Price for properties where both are listed reinforces the bifurcated market thesis. The data shows both premiums being paid and significant discounts being achieved, with the outcome highly dependent on asset quality, motivation, and time on market.¹

• Premiums Paid: In-demand assets, particularly those targeted by motivated buyers, traded at or above their asking price. A prime example is 4230 E Craig Rd, a Wingstop & Wendy’s. This property, explicitly noted as a 1031 Exchange, sold for $3.698 million, approximately $50,000 over its $3.648 million asking price. This suggests the buyer’s tax deadline was a primary motivator, reducing price sensitivity.

• Discounts Achieved: Conversely, assets that were stale or had physical challenges required significant discounts to transact.

  • 9140 W Sahara Ave, noted as a “High Vacancy Property,” sold for $2.5 million, a 21.8% discount from its $3.2 million asking price, after 589 days on market.

  • 4640 E Flamingo Rd, noted for “Deferred Maintenance,” sold for $1.65 million, a 17.5% discount from its $2.0 million asking price, after 678 days on market.

This data clearly indicates a balanced market. Buyers have significant leverage on older or problematic listings, while sellers of well-priced, in-demand NNN and QSR assets retain the upper hand.

4.0 Market Velocity: Time on Market (DOM) Analysis

This section addresses “how fast” properties are transacting, a key barometer of market health and liquidity.

4.1 Monthly Days on Market (DOM) Trend

Similar to pricing metrics, Days on Market (DOM) is highly prone to skew from outlier properties. The Q3 2025 sales data includes assets that sold in under 30 days (<1 Month) as well as properties that languished on the market for nearly two years, such as 4640 E Flamingo Rd (678 days) and 9140 W Sahara Ave (589 days).¹

Presenting an “average” DOM would be statistically inaccurate. The median DOM provides a much cleaner indicator of the true pace of the market for a typical asset.

Table 3: Average vs. Median Days on Market (August–October 2025)

Source: Analysis of ¹ data. Converts all Market Time entries to days. Excludes “blank” and “<1 Month” entries.

The data shows a lengthening of the median time on market from August to September/October. This aligns with broader economic reports of a residential market slowdown, where DOM has also increased.⁸ However, the key takeaway in the commercial sector is the wide divergence: the velocity is almost entirely asset-specific. High-quality NNN assets are effectively pre-sold, while value-add properties require a long marketing period.

4.2 Correlation of DOM and Pricing

Synthesizing the Discount-to-Ask (3.3) and DOM (4.1) analyses reveals a clear and actionable correlation for investors.

• Fast-Moving Assets (<90 Days): The analysis of properties that sold quickly shows they are almost exclusively NNN, QSR, or newly-built strip centers. A prime example is 4230 E Craig Rd, which sold in just 60 days for above its asking price.¹ These assets are in high demand from 1031 buyers and achieved pricing at or near the seller’s asking price.

• Stale Assets (>365 Days): These assets, which comprised a significant portion of the value-add segment, required major price corrections to transact. The 21.8% and 17.5% discounts on 9140 W Sahara and 4640 E Flamingo, respectively, came only after they sat on the market for over 1.5 years.¹ This proves that while liquidity exists for distressed assets, sellers must capitulate on price.

5. Key Transactions & Capital Markets Insights

Aggregated data must be supported by an analysis of individual deals to understand buyer motivations. The quarter’s sales show a healthy mix of institutional investors, private 1031 exchange buyers, and local owner-users, all competing for different products.

Table 3: Notable Transactions (Aug-Oct 2025)

Analysis of Capital Flows

The market is supported by a durable mix of capital. The proprietary data shows 18 National buyers and 10 Local buyers, demonstrating both strong local business growth and sustained national institutional interest.²

The buyer pool is defined by a “barbell” effect.

• Owner-Users: Buyers like Impact Sign (6265 Saddle Tree), Sahara Concrete (989 Empire Mesa), and Ferraro Marble (3515 Birtcher) are acquiring buildings for their operations.² These buyers are less sensitive to capitalization rates and are paying premiums for utility and the long-term benefit of controlling real estate costs in a tight leasing market.
• Investors: This group is dominated by high-net-worth individuals and private capital, often driven by tax advantages. The transactions for 5967 Harrison Dr, 5137 W Oquendo Rd, and 2960 E Sunset Rd (a 3-condo portfolio) were all driven by investors, with several explicitly noted as a 1031 Exchange.²

The shallow-bay market is so competitive because these two powerful buyer pools are competing for the same, scarce asset. Owner-users set a high-water mark on price, while time-sensitive 1031 exchange buyers create a high floor. This “capital squeeze” is a primary driver of the premium pricing observed in Class B infill properties.

5.0 Submarket & Geographic Analysis (The “Where”)

This section breaks down Q3 2025 sales performance by the key submarkets identified in the data to identify investment “hot spots” and regional valuation trends.¹

5.1 Submarket Performance Scorecard

The following table summarizes transactional performance by submarket for all “Sold” properties from August to October 2025.

Table 4: Submarket Performance Scorecard (August–October 2025)

Source: Analysis of ¹ data. Averages computed from non-blank entries only.

5.2 Submarket Analysis & Insights

The scorecard reveals distinct characteristics and investment theses for each geographic pocket of the valley.

• Southwest (SW) Las Vegas: The Southwest submarket was the clear leader in Q3, recording the highest total transaction volume ($34.9M). It is attracting both institutional capital (e.g., the $9.1M sale of 9475 S Rainbow Blvd) and high-value NNN trades (e.g., the $3.27M, $1,512/SF Starbucks at 5860 S Rainbow).¹ This transactional dominance is supported by strong underlying fundamentals; a Q3 Colliers report noted the SW submarket had positive net absorption and was the site of the quarter’s largest completion, a new Costco.² This combination of new development and strong investor demand makes it the most dynamic submarket in Las Vegas.

• Henderson: This submarket is defined by its premium-priced, newer assets. It commands the highest asking rents in the entire valley, averaging $2.87/SF NNN monthly ($34.44/yr).² The Q3 sales data confirms investors are paying this premium, with sales like 3235 Bicentennial Pky ($1,011/SF) and 601 Whitney Ranch Dr ($1,885/SF).¹ However, this premium pricing presents a potential risk: the same Colliers report showed that Henderson experienced negative net absorption in Q3.² This suggests a possible mismatch between high landlord rent expectations and current tenant demand.

• North Las Vegas: This submarket has emerged as a hotbed for new-build QSR and NNN assets. These properties are trading at high PSF values and low cap rates, driven by 1031 Exchange and private investors. Key examples include 2445 E Centennial Pky (Bank of America, $1,177/SF), 3255 Simmons St (Guthrie’s, $1,792/SF), and 1930 W Craig Rd (California Fish Grill, $934/SF).¹ This activity is a clear “flight to new quality” and “flight to security” play.

• East Las Vegas / Central East Las Vegas: These submarkets represent the “value-add” hub of the valley. Sales here consistently demonstrate the quarter’s highest cap rates and lowest PSF values. Transactions like 4777 E Charleston Blvd (6.9% cap) and 4640 E Flamingo Rd (7.44% cap, $101.85/SF) ¹ show where yield-seeking investors are finding opportunities to deploy capital, albeit with the attached risk of deferred maintenance and high vacancy.

6.0 Asset-Level Analysis (The “What”)

This section analyzes the types of assets trading, which is the core of the “bifurcated market” insight.

6.1 Performance by Property Type

Table 5: Performance by Property Type (August–October 2025)

Source: Analysis of ¹ data. Averages computed from non-blank entries only.

The data clearly shows that “Freestanding” retail, which includes the high-value QSR, bank, and NNN assets, is the dominant category. The average price-per-square-foot for this asset class ($677.16/SF) is more than double that of Neighborhood or Community Centers, confirming the pricing skew is concentrated in this one category.

6.2 The “Two Markets” Deep Dive: Investment-Grade vs. Owner-User/Value-Add

The Q3 2025 sales data shows three distinct buyer profiles dominating the market.

1. Investment-Grade (NNN, QSR, Bank): This segment is defined by assets such as the 7-Eleven, Starbucks, Olive Garden, Bank of America, Guthrie’s, and Take 5 Oil Change properties. These assets are trading at cap rates between 4.75% and 6.25%, with PSF values soaring from $900 to over $1,900.¹ As noted, many buyers are “1031 Exchange” motivated. This is a capital preservation and security play, largely divorced from local real estate fundamentals and driven instead by tenant credit and lease term.

2. Owner-User / Tenant Purchase: This was one of the most active and significant segments in Q3. Several major transactions involved a tenant acquiring its own building.

   • 6315 S Rainbow Blvd: Syndicate Mixed Martial Arts, which already occupied 75% of this 18,544 SF building, purchased the property for $6.6 million.

   • 4299 E Sunset Rd: InTouch Credit Union purchased its 2,286 SF freestanding building for $1.6 million.

   • 607 S Las Vegas Blvd: Vegas Weddings purchased the 1,320 SF building it occupied.

   • 1995 N Nellis Blvd: First Cash, Inc. (parent of tenant Cash 1 Loans) acquired its 8,221 SF building for $4.47 million.1This trend, also identified in the Las Vegas office market 7, is a major theme. Businesses are choosing to buy their real estate to control occupancy costs, escape rising NNN rents (which are up year-over-year) 2, and build long-term equity. This creates a stable “floor” for sales demand.

3. Value-Add: This segment is defined by older, Class B/C properties with operational challenges.

   • 4640 E Flamingo Rd: Sold at a 7.44% cap rate after 678 DOM, with “Deferred Maintenance” explicitly noted as a sale condition.

   • 9140 W Sahara Ave: Sold at a 21.8% discount after 589 DOM, noted as a “High Vacancy Property”.1There is a clear and active market for these assets, but sellers must accept significant discounts and long market times. Buyers are being compensated for this leasing and capital risk with high in-place yields and a low cost basis.

7.0 Noteworthy Transactions: Q3 2025

The following transactions from August to October 2025 ¹ best illustrate the quarter’s primary investment themes.

Table 6: Top Significant Transactions (August–October 2025)

Source: Analysis of ¹ data.

7.1 Largest Sale (by Price): 4040 & 3960 W Craig Rd ($16.75M Portfolio)

This two-property, 53,324 SF portfolio sale to institutional buyer Crow Holdings in August was the quarter’s largest transaction. As a 100% leased, Class B asset trading at a 7.2% cap rate, this deal serves as a bellwether for institutional demand for stabilized, cash-flowing assets at a yield that provides a positive spread over the cost of capital.

7.2 Highest Price/SF (Non-Outlier): 3235 Bicentennial Pky, Henderson ($1,011/SF)

This $5.35 million October sale of a 5,291 SF strip center (built 2022) in Henderson demonstrates the significant premium investors will pay for new construction in a prime submarket. This pricing aligns with Henderson’s status as the market leader in asking rents.²

7.3 Highest Price/SF (Outlier): 4151 Boulder Hwy, 7-Eleven ($1,934/SF)

This $5.0 million September sale of a 2,585 SF convenience store at a 4.85% cap rate is a classic NNN 1031 Exchange transaction. The pricing is entirely divorced from the underlying real estate value and is based purely on the tenant’s corporate credit and the long-term, passive income stream.

7.4 Lowest Cap Rate: 5860 S Rainbow Blvd, Starbucks ($3.27M @ 4.75% Cap)

This August sale of a newly-built (7 months old) Starbucks defines the “flight to quality” premium. Investors paid a sub-5% cap rate for a brand new, 100% leased asset with a drive-thru, demonstrating peak pricing for this gold-standard asset class.

7.5 Key Owner-User Sale: 6315 S Rainbow Blvd ($6.6M Purchase by Tenant)

The September acquisition of this 18,544 SF building by its primary tenant, Syndicate Mixed Martial Arts, is a perfect example of the owner-user trend. This $355/SF deal provides a strong pricing comparable for this asset type and highlights the trend of businesses opting to control their own real estate.

7.6 Key Value-Add Sale: 4640 E Flamingo Rd ($1.65M @ 7.44% Cap)

This August sale of a 16,200 SF, Class B building (built 1996) closed after 678 days on market with noted “Deferred Maintenance.” The buyer was compensated for the risk with a high in-place cap rate (7.44%) and a 17.5% discount from the original ask. This demonstrates that liquidity exists for distressed opportunities, but sellers must be realistic on price.

8.0 Customary Perspectives: Broader Market Context & Strategic Insights

This concluding section provides the “why” behind the transactional data by integrating Q3 2025 market-wide research and providing actionable, forward-looking advice.

8.1 Q3 2025 Macro-Market Fundamentals (The Brokerage View)

• Vacancy: The market-wide vacancy rate is softening, ticking up in Q3 2025. Brokerage reports show a range, from a low of 4.4% (citing Colliers) to 5.1% (Lee & Associates) to 6.0% (Cushman & Wakefield).   

• Absorption: Quarterly net absorption (tenant demand) was positive but modest, reported at +87,800 SF (Colliers) or +208,121 SF (C&W). This represents a significant short-term slowdown from the 813,000 SF absorbed over the past 12 months.   

• Rental Rates: Asking rents are up year-over-year. Market-wide averages range from $22.56/SF/YR (Colliers) to $24.12/SF/YR (C&W). However, premier submarkets like Henderson are commanding rates as high as $34.44/SF/YR.   

The clear takeaway is that the transactional data from Q3 (strong, accelerating sales volume) appears stronger than the leasing fundamentals (rising vacancy, weak absorption). This disconnect suggests the investment sales market is being driven by factors other than immediate tenant demand, namely 1031 Exchange capital, owner-user demand, and a desire to place capital in hard assets as an inflation hedge.

8.2 Expert Insight: Explaining Research Discrepancies

Clients and investors will inevitably see conflicting statistics from different brokerage houses. It is essential to understand why these discrepancies exist, as they are typically not “wrong,” but rather the result of different methodologies.

1. Inventory Base: The primary difference. Lee & Associates tracks a massive 123.1 million SF inventory , while Cushman & Wakefield tracks a more curated 68.6 million SF. A different denominator (total inventory) will always produce a different vacancy rate from the same amount of vacant space.   

2. Absorption Timeline: Lee’s 813,000 SF absorption figure is a 12-month trailing number, indicating healthy long-term demand. The C&W (+208k SF) and Colliers (+88k SF) figures are quarterly, indicating the immediate short-term slowdown. Both are correct.   

3. Asking Rent Skew: The large $10/SF gap in asking rents ($34.30/SF from Lee vs. ~$23/SF from Colliers/C&W) is explained by submarket skew and asset class. Colliers itself notes that while the market average is $22.56/yr, the Henderson submarket alone is $34.44/yr. This strongly suggests Lee’s $34.30 figure  is more representative of the Class A, suburban, new-construction assets that are leasing, not the entire market’s inventory.   

Blended Truth: The “true” market picture is a blend: Vacancy is in the 4.5%–5.5% range and is ticking up. Tenant demand has slowed significantly this quarter. Rents for existing Class B/C space are likely near $23/SF, while rents for new, premium space are commanding a significant premium over $34/SF.

8.3 Economic Drivers & Headwinds

• The Headwind: The core Las Vegas economy is “cautiously stable”  but shows clear signs of strain. Critically, visitor volume—the lifeblood of retail spending—has declined year-over-year. The unemployment rate remains elevated at 5.6%.   

• The Conflict: A critical divergence is apparent: consumer spending is up , but retail sales growth is negative. This indicates consumers are still spending, but they are spending on services and experiences (gaming, shows, travel) rather than on physical goods.   

• The Risk: A slowdown in the residential market (where inventory is up and time on market is increasing)  and distress in specific retail sectors (e.g., furniture)  will put pressure on non-essential retailers. This will likely weaken tenant demand further and place upward pressure on vacancy rates heading into 2026.   

8.4 The Investor’s Path Forward: Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations

Based on this analysis, clear, actionable strategies emerge for distinct investor profiles.

For Buyers:

1. Security-Driven (1031 / Private): Be prepared to pay a premium. The market for NNN, QSR, and new-build assets is the most competitive segment. The Q3 data shows these assets trade at sub-5.5% cap rates. Competition is high, and buyers must act decisively, as evidenced by the 1031-driven deal that sold above its asking price.   

2. Yield-Driven (Opportunistic): Significant opportunity exists in the value-add space (Class B/C, high-vacancy, deferred maintenance). The Q3 data proves buyers can achieve 7%–9% in-place cap rates and 15%–25% discounts from original asking prices. This strategy is viable only for buyers with the capital for improvements and the leasing expertise to stabilize the assets.

3. Owner-Users: This is a prime time to buy. The data shows multiple businesses successfully acquired their properties in Q3. This strategy allows a business to lock in long-term occupancy costs, build equity, and acquire assets from landlords who may be facing leasing pressure from rising NNNs  and softening tenant demand.   

For Sellers:

1. NNN / QSR / Premium Assets: The market is at or near its peak. The abundance of 1031 Exchange capital and private wealth seeking security has driven pricing to record highs and cap rates to record lows. Now is an excellent time to liquidate these assets at premium pricing.

2. Value-Add / Class B-C Assets: Be realistic. The Q3 data proves there is liquidity for these assets, but buyers have leverage. Properties that have been on the market for 6–12+ months will require a significant price reduction (15%–25%) to transact. The alternative is to hold and compete in a softening leasing market.

Final Word: The Q3 2025 transaction data shows a resilient sales market, but one that is fundamentally disconnected from the softening leasing fundamentals. This suggests sales velocity is being propped up by tax-motivated 1031 capital and strategic owner-user demand. This “capital-driven” market can be volatile, but for now, it provides clear, albeit divergent, opportunities for both buyers and sellers at opposite ends of the quality spectrum.

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window

Opens in a new window